Narrative Categories
MAGMA supports 24 narrative categories across two oracle modes:
- Standard Oracle — resolved by weighted data-source consensus over empirical or evidential outcomes.
- Consensus Oracle — resolved by multi-signal aggregation over collective social perception. Requires a Falsifiability Declaration and at least one measurable proxy metric at submission.
Exact per-source weights are intentionally not published; see Appendix B: Oracle Weights. The approximate weights shown below mirror the public values in Oracle Architecture.
Standard Oracle Categories
On-Chain and Financial
| Category | Scope | Primary Sources |
|---|---|---|
| MARKET | Crypto asset prices, DeFi metrics, on-chain statistics. The only category eligible for FAST (5-minute) narratives. | Pyth Network price feeds (primary) |
| ECOSYSTEM | Protocol TVL, user growth, on-chain activity metrics. Resolution extracts the protocol name from the thesis and compares current TVL against the stated target; supports directional theses. | DeFiLlama (40%), Tavily (30%), Grok (30%) |
| ECONOMICS | Macro indicators, central-bank decisions, trade data, inflation. | FRED API, BLS API, Grok, Perplexity |
| BUSINESS | Corporate events, M&A outcomes, earnings, executive changes. | SEC filings, Reuters via Tavily, Grok, Perplexity |
| COMMODITIES | Commodity price thresholds and supply data. Supported: WTI Crude, Brent Crude, Natural Gas, Copper, Wheat, Corn. Theses must state units. | Alpha Vantage (75%), Grok reasoning (25%) |
| MACRO | Macroeconomic thresholds beyond ECONOMICS: Fed rate decisions, GDP growth, central-bank policy. | FRED/BLS APIs (45%), Grok (30%), Perplexity (25%) |
| EQUITIES | Stock price thresholds, index levels (S&P 500, NASDAQ, Dow Jones), earnings beats/misses. Geo-blocked where securities prediction markets are restricted. | Alpha Vantage (50%), Grok (30%), Tavily (20%) |
| FOREX | FX rate thresholds: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, JPY/USD, and other major pairs. Theses must specify pair, direction, and target rate. | Alpha Vantage (85%), Grok (15%) |
Commodity unit conventions: Wheat and Corn prices are in cents per bushel; Oil prices are in USD per barrel. Theses must specify units explicitly.
Sports and Competition
| Category | Scope | Primary Sources |
|---|---|---|
| SPORTS | Match outcomes, championships, player statistics, tournament results. Supports football/soccer, NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, tennis, cricket. | The Odds API (50%), Tavily (30%), Grok (20%) |
| ESPORTS | Tournament results, league standings, competitive gaming outcomes. Supports CS:GO, League of Legends, Dota 2, Valorant, Overwatch, Rainbow 6, Rocket League, Call of Duty. | PandaScore (60%), Grok reasoning (40%) |
The Odds API is rate-limited to 500 requests/month and aggressively cached.
Government and Policy
| Category | Scope | Primary Sources |
|---|---|---|
| POLITICAL | Electoral results, policy implementations, official announcements. | Government sources, AP/Reuters via Tavily |
| LEGAL | Court rulings, regulatory decisions, legislative outcomes. | Official legal databases via Tavily, Grok analysis |
| GEOPOLITICAL | International agreements, diplomatic outcomes, treaty status. | Official government sources via Tavily, Grok analysis |
Science and Technology
| Category | Scope | Primary Sources |
|---|---|---|
| SCIENTIFIC | Research findings, clinical trial results, academic publications. | Published journals via Tavily, Grok analysis |
| TECHNOLOGY | Product launches, AI milestones, platform adoption. | Tavily web search, Grok analysis, Perplexity |
| HEALTH | Clinical trial outcomes, drug approvals, public health events. | WHO, FDA, PubMed via Tavily, Grok |
| CLIMATE | Environmental data, emissions targets, policy outcomes. | NOAA, government agencies via Tavily, Grok |
Community and Ecosystem
| Category | Scope | Primary Sources |
|---|---|---|
| ONCHAIN | Protocol-specific outcomes, MAGMA ecosystem milestones, on-chain metric thresholds. Resolution extracts a metric keyword (e.g. "TPS", "active wallets", "DEX volume") and compares against the stated target. | Dune Analytics (70%), Grok (30%) |
| BUILDER | Developer-ecosystem events, hackathon outcomes, project launches. | Tavily (40%), Grok (35%), Perplexity (25%) |
| CAST | Farcaster-native events and community milestones. | Neynar (70%), Grok (30%) |
Consensus Oracle Categories
MAGMA's consensus categories handle cultural and ideological narratives at scale. Resolution aggregates four signals — discourse, community (conviction-weighted backing distribution), research, and time-horizon — and requires supermajority weighted agreement across all of them.
| Category | Scope | Primary Sources |
|---|---|---|
| SOCIAL | Social-movement trajectories, platform growth, community developments. | Neynar (50%), Twitter/X (30%), Grok reasoning (20%) |
| CULTURAL | Music, art, entertainment, meme adoption, cultural-shift narratives. | Grok (30%), Perplexity (35%), community signal (35%) |
| CONVICTION | Ideological claims, technology-adoption theses, societal-change predictions. | Grok (30%), Perplexity (35%), community signal (35%) |
| SATIRE | Clearly satirical market narratives. The satire flag must be set at creation time and is immutable. | Grok (50%), Tavily (25%), Perplexity (25%) |
Twitter/X is rate-limited to 100 searches/month and aggressively cached.
Consensus Oracle Resolution Requirements
Narratives in SOCIAL, CULTURAL, and CONVICTION must include:
- A Falsifiability Declaration (minimum 50 characters) specifying conditions under which the claim would be false.
- At least one measurable proxy metric evaluable at resolution time.
A Resolvability Score (0–100) is computed at submission. Narratives scoring below 40 are rejected.
Oracle Mode by Category
| Mode | Categories | Resolution Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | MARKET, ECOSYSTEM, ECONOMICS, BUSINESS, COMMODITIES, MACRO, EQUITIES, FOREX, SPORTS, ESPORTS, POLITICAL, LEGAL, GEOPOLITICAL, SCIENTIFIC, TECHNOLOGY, HEALTH, CLIMATE, ONCHAIN, BUILDER, CAST | Weighted data-source consensus |
| Consensus | SOCIAL, CULTURAL, CONVICTION, SATIRE | Multi-signal aggregation with falsifiability and proxy-metric requirements |
FAST Narrative Restriction
FAST narratives (5-minute resolution) are restricted to the MARKET category only — the only category resolvable via Pyth price feeds without AI reasoning or research verification. FAST narratives use a Pyth-primary, Switchboard-fallback path and require a minimum backing of 10 USDC equivalent.
ONCHAIN Category Guide
ONCHAIN narratives resolve using real on-chain data from Dune Analytics, surfaced through the MAGMA Intelligence feed. The oracle extracts a metric keyword from the thesis and queries the pre-cached Dune data.
Writing effective ONCHAIN narratives:
- State the metric explicitly — "Solana will reach 5,000 TPS", not "Solana will be fast".
- State the target value — include a numeric threshold the oracle can compare against.
- State the measurement window — "by end of month", "on any single day in June".
- Reference the chain — "on Solana", "across all L2s".
Supported ONCHAIN metrics:
| Metric | Example Thesis |
|---|---|
| TPS (transactions per second) | "Solana will sustain above 3,000 TPS for 24 consecutive hours before June 30" |
| Active wallets / DAU | "Solana active wallets will exceed 3 million in a single day by Q3 2026" |
| DEX volume | "Solana DEX volume will exceed $10 billion in a single day before July 1" |
| TVL | "A single Solana protocol will reach $5 billion TVL before mainnet launch" |
Narratives that cannot be matched to a supported metric keyword receive a low Resolvability Score and are likely rejected.
Related Pages
- Oracle Architecture — full source list, M-of-N consensus, and the challenge window.
- Appendix B: Oracle Weights — why exact weights are not published.
- MAGMA Intelligence — the Dune-powered feed behind ONCHAIN resolution.