Conviction Score
The Conviction Score is a non-transferable, on-chain reputation metric tracked per wallet. It represents the accumulated evidence of a participant's prediction accuracy over time, and it determines the multiplier applied to that participant's share of the Forge pool on correct resolutions.
Mechanism
Score is weighted by the financial commitment behind each prediction — not merely by the count of correct calls. A wallet that backs 0.01 SOL on 100 narratives and gets 70 right builds a different score than one that backs 5 SOL on 10 narratives and gets 7 right. This prevents gaming via minimum-stake, high-volume spam.
Score update rules:
- +points per correct backing — narrative resolves TRUE and the wallet backed it.
- Early-backing points — backing within the first 20% of a narrative's time window.
- Discovery points — backing undiscovered narratives (small pool at commitment time). See Discovery Multiplier.
- No decrease on wrong calls — incorrect predictions prevent growth but never erase history.
- Caps at 1,000 points.
Tier system
The score maps to six tiers, each unlocking progressively greater yield multipliers, lower fees, and higher borrowing privileges. The multiplier applies to the participant's proportional share of the Forge pool on correct resolutions.
| Tier | Score | Yield Multiplier | Platform Fee | Max Borrow LTV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initiate | 0–49 | 1.0x | 2.5% | None |
| Ember | 50–99 | 1.1x | 2.0% | 50% |
| Flare | 100–299 | 1.3x | 1.5% | 60% |
| Magma | 300–599 | 1.6x | 1.5% | 65% |
| Core | 600–899 | 2.0x | 1.0% | 70% |
| Volcanic | 900–1000 | 2.5x | 0% (waived) | 75% |
The multiplier is stored in the BackingRecord PDA when you commit. If your score improves before
the narrative resolves, your multiplier on that narrative does not change. The multiplier you
lock in is the one that pays out.
Example — Volcanic tier, 10 SOL, 90-day narrative at ~7.2% annualized yield:
- Base yield 0.18 SOL × 2.5 multiplier = 0.45 SOL yield share from the Forge.
- The same position at Initiate tier: 0.18 SOL × 1.0 = 0.18 SOL.
The multiplier difference compounds across every position over time.
Stacked multipliers
The Conviction Score multiplier is the base of a three-factor, multiplicative stack. Each factor has its own page; this is how they combine.
Eruption Streak
The Eruption Streak stacks a second multiplier on top of the Conviction multiplier, earned through consecutive correct predictions:
| Streak Tier | Correct Predictions | Additional Multiplier |
|---|---|---|
| Tremor | 1–4 | 1.1x |
| Rumble | 5–9 | 1.25x |
| Surge | 10–19 | 1.5x |
| Eruption | 20–29 | 1.8x |
| Supervolcano | 30+ | 2.5x |
The two stack multiplicatively. A Volcanic-tier wallet at Supervolcano streak:
2.5 (Conviction) × 2.5 (Streak) = 6.25x effective Forge multiplier
Streaks reset on incorrect predictions; REFUND resolutions are neutral. A minimum backing
threshold applies — micro-stakes do not count.
Discovery Multiplier
The Discovery Multiplier adds a third factor (up to 2.0x) for committing early in the narrative's time window. At the maximum:
2.5 (Conviction) × 2.5 (Streak) × 2.0 (Discovery) = 12.5x
This is the protocol's highest-value participant state — and by construction it cannot be manufactured, only earned.
NFT tier access
Holding a MAGMA Lava Tier Card (MLAVA) grants the corresponding tier's multiplier immediately,
without earning the score over time. The system always applies MAX(NFT tier multiplier, earned score multiplier) — the NFT never penalizes earned status.
| NFT Tier | Yield Multiplier | Mint Price |
|---|---|---|
| Ember | 1.1x | 0.5 SOL |
| Flare | 1.3x | 1.5 SOL |
| Magma | 1.6x | 5.0 SOL |
| Core | 2.0x | 12.0 SOL |
| Volcanic | 2.5x | 25.0 SOL |
The NFT buys the financial benefit. The earned score builds social capital — high-scored wallets are visible on leaderboards and attract larger backing pools to the narratives they submit. An NFT cannot replicate that reputational signal.
On-chain attestation
When your Conviction Score crosses a tier threshold, the backend issues a Solana Attestation Service (SAS) credential — a verifiable on-chain credential any protocol can read without touching MAGMA's database.
This makes conviction tier verifiable by external DeFi protocols, lending platforms, or any application that wants to offer preferential terms to participants with proven prediction accuracy. Attestations are issued automatically at tier crossings.
Retention properties
The Conviction Score creates switching costs that are asymmetric and non-replicable. A Core-tier participant (600+ score, 2.0x multiplier, 1% fee) accumulated that status over months of accurate predictions; any competing platform requires starting from zero. Because the score never decreases from incorrect predictions, a single bad call cannot erase a long-term participant's history.