Eruption Streak
The Eruption Streak measures consecutive correct predictions at minimum stake. It is separate from the Conviction Score — the two multiply together. A participant at Volcanic conviction tier with a Supervolcano streak earns at a fundamentally different level than any single-variable participant.
The five tiers
| Tier | Consecutive correct predictions | Forge multiplier |
|---|---|---|
| Tremor | 1–4 | 1.1x |
| Rumble | 5–9 | 1.25x |
| Surge | 10–19 | 1.5x |
| Eruption | 20–29 | 1.8x |
| Supervolcano | 30+ | 2.5x |
The multiplier applies to the participant's share of the Forge pool on correct resolutions.
Stacking with the Conviction Score
The streak multiplier stacks multiplicatively with the Conviction Score multiplier, and the Discovery Multiplier stacks on top of both:
Volcanic (2.5x) × Supervolcano (2.5x) = 6.25x base Forge share
+ Discovery at 2.0x for early commitment = 12.5x effective multiplier
This is the protocol's highest-value participant state. It requires genuine sustained accuracy over 30+ predictions, maintained at Volcanic conviction tier, with early-commitment discipline. See Conviction Score → stacked multipliers for the combined picture.
What counts as a valid streak contribution
A prediction must meet two conditions to advance the streak:
- Minimum stake — backing must exceed the threshold (currently 0.1 SOL). The scoring agent reads the backing amount from the resolution context and skips below-threshold backers when updating streaks. Micro-stakes do not count.
- Correct resolution — the narrative must resolve
TRUEwith the participant on the TRUE side.
Reset and neutral conditions
| Event | Effect on streak |
|---|---|
Incorrect resolution (FALSE) | Resets to zero |
REFUND resolution | Neutral — does not advance, does not reset |
| Missing predictions | No effect — only consecutive correct matters, not continuous activity |
REFUND neutrality matters: if the oracle fails to resolve a narrative you backed correctly, your
streak survives. Protocol failure does not cost the participant their streak history.
Category diversity (Surge and above)
At Surge tier (10+ correct) and above, streak maintenance requires backing across at least three different categories within the rolling streak window.
This blocks the most obvious gaming strategy: repeatedly backing a single well-understood domain at minimum stake. A participant who backs Sports narratives exclusively is capped at Rumble; breaking through to Surge requires demonstrating cross-category accuracy.
Echo Pool impact
Streak tier also multiplies Echo Pool ticket earnings per correct backing. A Supervolcano-tier participant earns substantially more tickets per SOL backed correctly than an Initiate-tier participant — so the streak compounds into both the Forge distribution and the Echo Pool simultaneously.
Anti-gaming properties
The streak is designed so the only path to maximum value is genuine, sustained, diversified accuracy in a single wallet over time:
- Minimum stake prevents dust farming — enforced at the data layer, not just the UI.
- Category diversity prevents domain farming — required at Surge and above.
- Reset on incorrect predictions — one wrong call at Supervolcano resets to zero.
- Sybil resistance via the Conviction Score — splitting across wallets produces many Tremor wallets, not one Supervolcano; the combined multiplier is strictly lower.
A 30-streak cannot be manufactured. It can only be earned.