Discovery Multiplier
Prediction markets suffer a coordination problem in early markets: rational participants prefer to wait and observe before committing, because early commitment is riskier and earns no extra reward. The result is thin early markets with noisy price signals.
The Discovery Multiplier fixes this by making early commitment financially rewarding. It applies to the participant's yield earnings from the Forge pool.
Mechanism
| Position in time window | Discovery multiplier |
|---|---|
| First 10% | 2.0x |
| First 25% | 1.5x |
| First 50% | 1.2x |
| After 50% | 1.0x (no bonus) |
The discovery window is computed from the narrative's creation timestamp and deadline — not from pool size. This prevents manipulation via deliberate timing of when a pool fills.
Combined multiplier
The Conviction Score multiplier, the Eruption Streak multiplier, and the Discovery Multiplier are all multiplicative. A Volcanic-tier participant at Supervolcano streak committing in the first 10% of the window:
2.5 (Conviction) × 2.5 (Streak) × 2.0 (Discovery) = 12.5x effective multiplier on Forge yield share
On a 90-day narrative with 10 SOL committed at roughly 7.2% annualized yield and a modest Forge pool, this represents the protocol's highest-value participant state: consistently accurate, maintaining a long streak, and committed early. It cannot be manufactured — each factor requires genuine sustained performance.
Conviction Score bonus
Backing undiscovered narratives — those with small backing pools at commitment time — adds additional Conviction Score points beyond a standard correct backing. This rewards participants who commit before social consensus has formed, which is the most genuinely informative signal in any prediction market.